Renewable Energy M&A

Innergex divested a 30% interest in its French wind assets, which includes 324 MW of operational wind, a 9 MW storage system, and a 397 MW development pipeline, to Credit Agricole at an enterprise value (EV) of approximately $234mn. Just nine months prior, Innergex purchased a 30.45% interest in these operational assets from Desjardins Group for $148mn.

US and Europe will continue to lead the market with ~70% of the deals, while Asia will witness its activity double y/y. US: Tax credits for low carbon transport fuels drive deal activity - RNG assets are expected to continue dominating the deal targets as PE firms and O&G companies rush to tap the $1/gallon tax credits. Alcohol fuels garner significant investor interest as well, driven by EPA fuel blending mandates.

EDP Renewables (EDPR) sold a 257 MW wind portfolio to Verbund for $491mn, at a multiple of $1.91mn/MW, reflecting a ~48% increase over the multiple at which it acquired the assets from Viesgo in Jul'20. Pre EDP’s acquisition in 2020, day-ahead prices averaged ~$54/MWh over five years. Subsequent global events have caused significant disruptions, leading to a surge in prices to ~$140/MWh since 2021.

Tax credit under IRA and module ban delay spurs investor action, fueling growth for cost-advantaged IPPs & utilities. Impending module import ban drives urgency for activity: Pause on import ban of solar modules from Southeast Asia till Jun'24 will be the key driver for rise in deal activity in H2 2023, with companies rushing to complete their acquisitions for development assets and secure modules within the window.

The acquisition involves four solar farms: Domeyko (204 MW), Carrera Pinto (97 MW), Pampa Solar Norte (79 MW), and Diego de Almagro (36 MW). These operational projects, located in Antofagasta and Atacama provinces, have entered into operation between 2014 and 2022. With a combined capacity of ~416 MW, the solar farms generate around 1 TWh of electricity. They have long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Enel Generación Chile (formerly Endesa Chile) and supply electricity to Chile's Central Region Transmission Network, Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC). For Enel, the move aligns with its strategic plan to streamline operations and focus on its core business of electricity power generation. Notably, previous reports suggested that Cubico was also part of the race to acquire the portfolio.

Deal activity is expected to pick up pace in H2 2023 with the inflation rate in the South American countries projected to drop by 6 points by the end of the year, to ~12%, according to the IMF. Over two-third of Chile's deal activity this year represented transactions for small-scale distributed generation (DG) systems - primarily in the central part of the country - with BlackRock, Blue Elephant Energy and Brookfield all making major moves. This is primarily due to the PMGD programme, which offers automatic grid access with no curtailment guarantee, transmission toll reduction and stabilized power price assurance. Enerdatics expects firms to continue their "wait and watch" approach in Brazil, as the newly elected federal government unveils energy transition strategies.

Orsted has entered into an agreement with Schroders Greencoat to divest its remaining 25% stake in the London Array offshore wind farm located ~20 km off the Kent coast in the UK. The wind farm began its commercial operation in 2013. While the project is contracted to secure two renewables obligation certificates (ROCs) per MWh of energy produced till 2033, it had previously entered into short-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with E.ON and Statkraft to sell part of its power production. Orsted is now fully divesting its ownership in the project, and Schroders will join RWE, CDPQ, and Masdar as shareholders of the London Array offshore wind farm.

Amid challenging market conditions in Europe’s offshore wind sector, investor appetite for operational projects in the continent’s mature markets such as the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands has surged in 2022. This is primarily due to the long-term revenue guarantee of these assets, which are backed by CfD/FiT contracts secured during the period of 2012-15 at power prices as high as $200/MWh. Meanwhile, activity for development assets in mature markets fell by 50% y/y in 2022, as a result of falling CfD prices in the UK and negative bidding tenders in Germany, which is challenging the economic viability of offshore wind projects in these countries.